Remember the old joke about the camper who stops to tie his shoes instead of running away from a charging grizzly? His buddy says, “Don’t bother putting on your running shoes, you can’t outrun a grizzly bear.” And the punch line follows: “I don’t have to outrun the bear, I just have to outrun you.”
It occurred to me that this construction market makes that story an important lesson. A lot of building products manufacturers have cut overhead to the bone, sales are rare and contracts are not very big whenever they do come in. For most, it’s as rough as it’s ever been.
Over the next few months, something’s got to change. But if it doesn’t, businesses will fail. Some old line brands will forever disappear. Right now, to survive, companies don’t have to set sales records, they just have to stay out in front of their competitors.
There are positive signs that the economy will rebound significantly starting in first or second quarter 2011. In our business, that will begin by architects producing drawings and specifications. These are architects who have been fairly idle for quite a while and who will be using manufacturers’ web sites, Google, magazines like Architectural Products and other research tools to get back up to speed. That’s why you want to be there when they are. That means cleaning up your website, SEO, advertising and PR, developing high quality continuing education courses and judiciously selecting from among the trade shows.
McGraw Hill Construction has said that the construction Industry is confident there will be a recovery beginning by the end of 2010. Bloomberg cites
NAHB’s statements that new home construction will come back to 2009 levels in 2011. Personally, I believe there will be legislative changes in the next congress that will cause about a trillion dollars to come back into play as early as Q1- first into asset acquisition of cheap, high-value properties, and planning (including architecture). That leaves two trillion idle cash dollars still in the hands of asset managers and cash-rich investors. They’ll release half that if Obama repeats Clinton - when he and Newt Gingrich worked together to produce a tremendous financial boom. The final trillion will return in 2012, largely because the deficit trend will have been reversed and holding cash on the sidelines will be pointlessly inefficient. So get ready for a sustained period of growth.
That means now - right now - is the time to start ramping up. Those companies who get the architects’ Share of Mind now, will survive to enjoy a larger Share of Market in the near future.
Jack is president and creative director of LarsonOBrien Marketing Group and was once a UPI correspondent and radio news anchor.













